Martingale - MT2Trading

Has anyone tried combomcombining martingale with anti martingale?

For clarification Im using this for betting on stocks going up or down after a certain time frame. (Maximum 10k betters and min 10, works out to be 9 bets this way) But this can definitely be used in roulette too.
So if you lose your first 50/50 bet you start martingale and try and break even.
Then if you win the first 50/50 bet you start doing anti martingale and use the winnings to add on to the next bet.
Im pretty tired but after doing some math and simple simulations it seems to work.
The basic idea is that 1/2 of the time you will breakeven and after 512 tries you lose a large amount.
The other half of the time your making money and unless im autistic, the money you would theoretically make it more then what you would lose every time you lose 9 in a row.
submitted by bigdaddyjeff69 to gambling [link] [comments]

[Op-Ed] - What is anti-martingale in investing?

[Op-Ed] - What is anti-martingale in investing? submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to THEHINDUauto [link] [comments]

Forex Risk Management - the Anti-Martingale system

submitted by ajfischer to business [link] [comments]

You're never "due" for a win at the casino

With some of the discussion I've seen in this sub about strategies people are using playing the new games in the Casino, I just wanted to point out some facts about games of chance:
I'm sure these things are obvious to plenty of you, but if they're then not do yourself a favor and learn about the gambler's fallacy. Don't trust your intuition about games of chance unless you understand it. When it comes to games of chance, "common sense" is often dead wrong. When considering a strategy for such games, think carefully about whether that strategy is based in the gambler's fallacy. Don't trust trust any strategy that is.
There are some games where there's information available to you about the probabilities that might give you an advantage (i.e. visible cards of the dealer and other players), but that's information about the current trial and has nothing to do with previous trials and is not falling into the gambler's fallacy.
In some cases it's possible for information about past trials to provide useful information about the probabilities of the current trial (e.g. counting cards in Blackjack), but that requires accurate information about the whole state of the game you're playing (i.e. the number of decks in the dealing shoe, when re-shuffling happens, etc.). Some people are reporting success with counting cards at Blackjack in GTAO, but I'd be skeptical at this point. More power to you if that actually works and you can pull it off and make money with that method, but that again is really a matter of accurately computing the probability of the current trial and is not to be confused with the gambler's fallacy.
Some people have mentioned the Martingale strategy which sounds smart, but can only work eventually and only if there are no betting limits and you have an infinite amount of money to bet at the start (neither of which are true for the GTAO casino). While it's also not to be confused with the gambler's fallacy, the reverse martingale which may seem similar is exactly based in the gambler's fallacy. If you can't see the difference between the two, you probably shouldn't use either.
Finally, best of luck, have fun, and remember it's all just fake GTA$ since you can't spend Shark Card money at the casino.
EDIT: Fixed a couple links.
submitted by xorian to gtaonline [link] [comments]

How to get started in Forex - A comprehensive guide for newbies

Almost every day people come to this subreddit asking the same basic questions over and over again. I've put this guide together to point you in the right direction and help you get started on your forex journey.

A quick background on me before you ask: My name is Bob, I'm based out of western Canada. I started my forex journey back in January 2018 and am still learning. However I am trading live, not on demo accounts. I also code my own EA's. I not certified, licensed, insured, or even remotely qualified as a professional in the finance industry. Nothing I say constitutes financial advice. Take what I'm saying with a grain of salt, but everything I've outlined below is a synopsis of some tough lessons I've learned over the last year of being in this business.

LET'S GET SOME UNPLEASANTNESS OUT OF THE WAY

I'm going to call you stupid. I'm also going to call you dumb. I'm going to call you many other things. I do this because odds are, you are stupid, foolish,and just asking to have your money taken away. Welcome to the 95% of retail traders. Perhaps uneducated or uninformed are better phrases, but I've never been a big proponent of being politically correct.

Want to get out of the 95% and join the 5% of us who actually make money doing this? Put your grown up pants on, buck up, and don't give me any of this pc "This is hurting my feelings so I'm not going to listen to you" bullshit that the world has been moving towards.

Let's rip the bandage off quickly on this point - the world does not give a fuck about you. At one point maybe it did, it was this amazing vision nicknamed the American Dream. It died an agonizing, horrible death at the hand of capitalists and entrepreneurs. The world today revolves around money. Your money, my money, everybody's money. People want to take your money to add it to theirs. They don't give a fuck if it forces you out on the street and your family has to live in cardboard box. The world just stopped caring in general. It sucks, but it's the way the world works now. Welcome to the new world order. It's called Capitalism.

And here comes the next hard truth that you will need to accept - Forex is a cruel bitch of a mistress. She will hurt you. She will torment you. She will give you nightmares. She will keep you awake at night. And then she will tease you with a glimmer of hope to lure you into a false sense of security before she then guts you like a fish and shows you what your insides look like. This statement applies to all trading markets - they are cruel, ruthless, and not for the weak minded.

The sooner you accept these truths, the sooner you will become profitable. Don't accept it? That's fine. Don't bother reading any further. If I've offended you I don't give a fuck. You can run back home and hide under your bed. The world doesn't care and neither do I.

For what it's worth - I am not normally an major condescending asshole like the above paragraphs would suggest. In fact, if you look through my posts on this subreddit you will see I am actually quite helpful most of the time to many people who come here. But I need you to really understand that Forex is not for most people. It will make you cry. And if the markets themselves don't do it, the people in the markets will.

LESSON 1 - LEARN THE BASICS

Save yourself and everybody here a bunch of time - learn the basics of forex. You can learn the basics for free - BabyPips has one of the best free courses online which explains what exactly forex is, how it works, different strategies and methods of how to approach trading, and many other amazing topics.

You can access the BabyPips course by clicking this link: https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex

Do EVERY course in the School of Pipsology. It's free, it's comprehensive, and it will save you from a lot of trouble. It also has the added benefit of preventing you from looking foolish and uneducated when you come here asking for help if you already know this stuff.

If you still have questions about how forex works, please see the FREE RESOURCES links on the /Forex FAQ which can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/wiki/index

Quiz Time
Answer these questions truthfully to yourself:

-What is the difference between a market order, a stop order, and a limit order?
-How do you draw a support/resistance line? (Demonstrate it to yourself)
-What is the difference between MACD, RSI, and Stochastic indicators?
-What is fundamental analysis and how does it differ from technical analysis and price action trading?
-True or False: It's better to have a broker who gives you 500:1 margin instead of 50:1 margin. Be able to justify your reasoning.

If you don't know to answer to any of these questions, then you aren't ready to move on. Go back to the School of Pipsology linked above and do it all again.

If you can answer these questions without having to refer to any kind of reference then congratulations, you are ready to move past being a forex newbie and are ready to dive into the wonderful world of currency trading! Move onto Lesson 2 below.

LESSON 2 - RANDOM STRANGERS ARE NOT GOING TO HELP YOU GET RICH IN FOREX

This may come as a bit of a shock to you, but that random stranger on instagram who is posting about how he is killing it on forex is not trying to insprire you to greatness. He's also not trying to help you. He's also not trying to teach you how to attain financial freedom.

99.99999% of people posting about wanting to help you become rich in forex are LYING TO YOU.

Why would such nice, polite people do such a thing? Because THEY ARE TRYING TO PROFIT FROM YOUR STUPIDITY.

Plain and simple. Here's just a few ways these "experts" and "gurus" profit from you:


These are just a few examples. The reality is that very few people make it big in forex or any kind of trading. If somebody is trying to sell you the dream, they are essentially a magician - making you look the other way while they snatch your wallet and clean you out.

Additionally, on the topic of fund managers - legitimate fund managers will be certified, licensed, and insured. Ask them for proof of those 3 things. What they typically look like are:

If you are talking to a fund manager and they are insisting they have all of these, get a copy of their verification documents and lookup their licenses on the directories of the issuers to verify they are valid. If they are, then at least you are talking to somebody who seems to have their shit together and is doing investment management and trading as a professional and you are at least partially protected when the shit hits the fan.


LESSON 3 - UNDERSTAND YOUR RISK

Many people jump into Forex, drop $2000 into a broker account and start trading 1 lot orders because they signed up with a broker thinking they will get rich because they were given 500:1 margin and can risk it all on each trade. Worst-case scenario you lose your account, best case scenario you become a millionaire very quickly. Seems like a pretty good gamble right? You are dead wrong.

As a new trader, you should never risk more than 1% of your account balance on a trade. If you have some experience and are confident and doing well, then it's perfectly natural to risk 2-3% of your account per trade. Anybody who risks more than 4-5% of their account on a single trade deserves to blow their account. At that point you aren't trading, you are gambling. Don't pretend you are a trader when really you are just putting everything on red and hoping the roulette ball lands in the right spot. It's stupid and reckless and going to screw you very quickly.

Let's do some math here:

You put $2,000 into your trading account.
Risking 1% means you are willing to lose $20 per trade. That means you are going to be trading micro lots, or 0.01 lots most likely ($0.10/pip). At that level you can have a trade stop loss at -200 pips and only lose $20. It's the best starting point for anybody. Additionally, if you SL 20 trades in a row you are only down $200 (or 10% of your account) which isn't that difficult to recover from.
Risking 3% means you are willing to lose $60 per trade. You could do mini lots at this point, which is 0.1 lots (or $1/pip). Let's say you SL on 20 trades in a row. You've just lost $1,200 or 60% of your account. Even veteran traders will go through periods of repeat SL'ing, you are not a special snowflake and are not immune to periods of major drawdown.
Risking 5% means you are willing to lose $100 per trade. SL 20 trades in a row, your account is blown. As Red Foreman would call it - Good job dumbass.

Never risk more than 1% of your account on any trade until you can show that you are either consistently breaking even or making a profit. By consistently, I mean 200 trades minimum. You do 200 trades over a period of time and either break-even or make a profit, then you should be alright to increase your risk.

Unfortunately, this is where many retail traders get greedy and blow it. They will do 10 trades and hit their profit target on 9 of them. They will start seeing huge piles of money in their future and get greedy. They will start taking more risk on their trades than their account can handle.

200 trades of break-even or profitable performance risking 1% per trade. Don't even think about increasing your risk tolerance until you do it. When you get to this point, increase you risk to 2%. Do 1,000 trades at this level and show break-even or profit. If you blow your account, go back down to 1% until you can figure out what the hell you did differently or wrong, fix your strategy, and try again.

Once you clear 1,000 trades at 2%, it's really up to you if you want to increase your risk. I don't recommend it. Even 2% is bordering on gambling to be honest.


LESSON 4 - THE 500 PIP DRAWDOWN RULE

This is a rule I created for myself and it's a great way to help protect your account from blowing.

Sometimes the market goes insane. Like really insane. Insane to the point that your broker can't keep up and they can't hold your orders to the SL and TP levels you specified. They will try, but during a flash crash like we had at the start of January 2019 the rules can sometimes go flying out the window on account of the trading servers being unable to keep up with all the shit that's hitting the fan.

Because of this I live by a rule I call the 500 Pip Drawdown Rule and it's really quite simple - Have enough funds in your account to cover a 500 pip drawdown on your largest open trade. I don't care if you set a SL of -50 pips. During a flash crash that shit sometimes just breaks.

So let's use an example - you open a 0.1 lot short order on USDCAD and set the SL to 50 pips (so you'd only lose $50 if you hit stoploss). An hour later Trump makes some absurd announcement which causes a massive fundamental event on the market. A flash crash happens and over the course of the next few minutes USDCAD spikes up 500 pips, your broker is struggling to keep shit under control and your order slips through the cracks. By the time your broker is able to clear the backlog of orders and activity, your order closes out at 500 pips in the red. You just lost $500 when you intended initially to only risk $50.

It gets kinda scary if you are dealing with whole lot orders. A single order with a 500 pip drawdown is $5,000 gone in an instant. That will decimate many trader accounts.

Remember my statements above about Forex being a cruel bitch of a mistress? I wasn't kidding.

Granted - the above scenario is very rare to actually happen. But glitches to happen from time to time. Broker servers go offline. Weird shit happens which sets off a fundamental shift. Lots of stuff can break your account very quickly if you aren't using proper risk management.


LESSON 5 - UNDERSTAND DIFFERENT TRADING METHODOLOGIES

Generally speaking, there are 3 trading methodologies that traders employ. It's important to figure out what method you intend to use before asking for help. Each has their pros and cons, and you can combine them in a somewhat hybrid methodology but that introduces challenges as well.

In a nutshell:

Now you may be thinking that you want to be a a price action trader - you should still learn the principles and concepts behind TA and FA. Same if you are planning to be a technical trader - you should learn about price action and fundamental analysis. More knowledge is better, always.

With regards to technical analysis, you need to really understand what the different indicators are tell you. It's very easy to misinterpret what an indicator is telling you, which causes you to make a bad trade and lose money. It's also important to understand that every indicator can be tuned to your personal preferences.

You might find, for example, that using Bollinger Bands with the normal 20 period SMA close, 2 standard deviation is not effective for how you look at the chart, but changing that to say a 20 period EMA average price, 1 standard deviation bollinger band indicator could give you significantly more insight.


LESSON 6 - TIMEFRAMES MATTER

Understanding the differences in which timeframes you trade on will make or break your chosen strategy. Some strategies work really well on Daily timeframes (i.e. Ichimoku) but they fall flat on their face if you use them on 1H timeframes, for example.

There is no right or wrong answer on what timeframe is best to trade on. Generally speaking however, there are 2 things to consider:


If you are a total newbie to forex, I suggest you don't trade on anything shorter than the 1H timeframe when you are first learning. Trading on higher timeframes tends to be much more forgiving and profitable per trade. Scalping is a delicate art and requires finesse and can be very challenging when you are first starting out.


LESSON 7 - AUTOBOTS...ROLL OUT!

Yeah...I'm a geek and grew up with the Transformers franchise decades before Michael Bay came along. Deal with it.

Forex bots are called EA's (Expert Advisors). They can be wonderous and devastating at the same time. /Forex is not really the best place to get help with them. That is what /algotrading is useful for. However some of us that lurk on /Forex code EA's and will try to assist when we can.

Anybody can learn to code an EA. But just like how 95% of retail traders fail, I would estimate the same is true for forex bots. Either the strategy doesn't work, the code is buggy, or many other reasons can cause EA's to fail. Because EA's can often times run up hundreds of orders in a very quick period of time, it's critical that you test them repeatedly before letting them lose on a live trading account so they don't blow your account to pieces. You have been warned.

If you want to learn how to code an EA, I suggest you start with MQL. It's a programming language which can be directly interpretted by Meta Trader. The Meta Trader terminal client even gives you a built in IDE for coding EA's in MQL. The downside is it can be buggy and glitchy and caused many frustrating hours of work to figure out what is wrong.

If you don't want to learn MQL, you can code an EA up in just about any programming language. Python is really popular for forex bots for some reason. But that doesn't mean you couldn't do it in something like C++ or Java or hell even something more unusual like JQuery if you really wanted.

I'm not going to get into the finer details of how to code EA's, there are some amazing guides out there. Just be careful with them. They can be your best friend and at the same time also your worst enemy when it comes to forex.

One final note on EA's - don't buy them. Ever. Let me put this into perspective - I create an EA which is literally producing money for me automatically 24/5. If it really is a good EA which is profitable, there is no way in hell I'm selling it. I'm keeping it to myself to make a fortune off of. EA's that are for sale will not work, will blow your account, and the developer who coded it will tell you that's too darn bad but no refunds. Don't ever buy an EA from anybody.

LESSON 8 - BRING ON THE HATERS

You are going to find that this subreddit is frequented by trolls. Some of them will get really nasty. Some of them will threaten you. Some of them will just make you miserable. It's the price you pay for admission to the /Forex club.

If you can't handle it, then I suggest you don't post here. Find a more newbie-friendly site. It sucks, but it's reality.

We often refer to trolls on this subreddit as shitcunts. That's your word of the day. Learn it, love it. Shitcunts.


YOU MADE IT, WELCOME TO FOREX!

If you've made it through all of the above and aren't cringing or getting scared, then welcome aboard the forex train! You will fit in nicely here. Ask your questions and the non-shitcunts of our little corner of reddit will try to help you.

Assuming this post doesn't get nuked and I don't get banned for it, I'll add more lessons to this post over time. Lessons I intend to add in the future:
If there is something else you feel should be included please drop a comment and I'll add it to the above list of pending topics.

Cheers,

Bob



submitted by wafflestation to Forex [link] [comments]

Fakta Tentang Taruhan Progresif di Situs Game Slot Online Terbaru

Fakta Tentang Taruhan Progresif di Situs Game Slot Online Terbaru
Ketika tren perjudian berubah, dari kasino konvensional menjadi situs game slot online terbaru dengan Situs judi rekomendasi dari admin menjadi salah satu situs judi online tertua di luar sana, demikian pula gaya taruhan, taruhan datar ke taruhan progresif.
Taruhan progresif digunakan oleh sebagian besar penjudi untuk mendapatkan keunggulan. Ini adalah strategi untuk bermain slot online di mana Anda menaikkan atau menurunkan jumlah taruhan, tergantung pada apakah Anda kalah atau memenangkan putaran sebelumnya.
Meskipun butuh waktu untuk mulai menghasilkan keuntungan, bermain dengan cara ini juga dapat membantu Anda memenangkan jackpot progresif di judi slot online. Situs judi rekomendasi dari admin menawarkan jackpot progresif yang hebat bagi para pemain yang tahu permainan mereka dengan baik dan tahu strategi terbaik cara memainkannya. Di sini, Anda akan menemukan berbagai permainan untuk Anda ketagihan.
Selama bertahun-tahun, ada banyak teori tentang sistem taruhan yang tepat untuk menang ketika bermain permainan situs judi. Tidak ada sistem progresif yang konsisten, karena itu tergantung pada probabilitas dan goresan.
Tapi, ya, seorang pemain rata-rata pasti dapat menutupi sebagian besar dari kerugiannya dan bahkan mungkin membuat keuntungan kecil. Ada dua sistem dasar taruhan progresif, tergantung pada apakah Anda menaikkan atau menurunkan taruhan Anda.
  • SISTEM PROGRESIF POSITIF - Dianggap strategi terbaik sebagai pemain bertaruh lebih sedikit jika mereka kalah dan meningkatkan taruhan pada kemenangan. Ini aman karena peluang Anda untuk menderita kerugian besar minimal.
  • SISTEM PROGRESIF NEGATIF ​​- Jumlah taruhan dinaikkan setelah kerugian dengan harapan memulihkan uang dan dalam banyak kasus, berlipat ganda, seperti dalam sistem Martingale. Tidak direkomendasikan, karena bisa membuat Anda bangkrut.

https://preview.redd.it/7dodah84djm31.jpg?width=678&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14751098a73787da861ef569f231b2231617afae

Sistem Bertaruh yang Digunakan Secara Umum

Berdasarkan dua sistem dasar di atas, strategi taruhan progresif modern seperti Martingale, D'Alembert, Paroli, Parlay, dan Oscar's Grind telah dikembangkan. Berikut ini adalah ikhtisar singkat dari semua strategi taruhan progresif yang disebutkan:

Martingale dalam Situs joker slot Online Indonesia

Pemain menempel pada taruhan asli untuk menang dan menggandakan taruhan untuk kalah. Ini adalah contoh sistem taruhan progresif negatif dan tidak direkomendasikan karena melibatkan risiko banyak uang. Banyak penjudi percaya bahwa kemenangan akan memulihkan semua kekalahan mereka sebelumnya tanpa menyadari bahwa mereka perlu memiliki jumlah kekayaan yang tak terbatas untuk memulihkan pertumbuhan taruhan secara eksponensial jika mengalami kekalahan beruntun.
Sistem ini mungkin tidak berfungsi jika peluang bandar tercapai dan pemain belum mendapat untung. Ini adalah sistem taruhan tertua dan telah dimodifikasi untuk memainkan permainan situs joker slot online indonesia hari ini.

D'Alembert

Sistem ini kurang berisiko dibandingkan Martingale dan sangat mudah dipahami. Di sini, pemain menaikkan taruhan dengan unit setelah kalah dan menurunkan taruhan dengan unit setelah menang.
Taruhannya tidak tinggi setelah kalah dan Anda bisa mempertahankan sebagian besar kemenangan Anda. Sistem ini digunakan oleh banyak penjudi untuk bermain permainan situs judi online seperti Baccarat dan Roulette.

Oscar's Grind

Sistem taruhan progresif terbaru yang relatif dan bisa sedikit rumit untuk diikuti. Paling sering digunakan di Blackjack, di mana pemain meningkatkan taruhan untuk menang dan menempel pada taruhan asli untuk kalah. Menguntungkan jika Anda berada di jalur kemenangan, yang merupakan sesuatu yang tidak dapat Anda prediksi.

Paroli

Juga disebut sistem Anti-Martingale; pemain meningkatkan taruhan hanya jika menang. Baik untuk pemain yang memiliki sedikit uang untuk bermain dan dengan sedikit keberuntungan, mereka bisa menang lebih banyak dari pada taruhan datar.

Parlay

Paroli dan Parlay adalah contoh sistem taruhan progresif positif. Ini adalah sistem taruhan tertua dan paling sederhana. Di sini, pemain mempertaruhkan saham aslinya ditambah jumlah kemenangannya untuk memasang taruhan berikutnya dan melakukannya di setiap tangan yang menang berturut-turut, saat kalah; dia kembali ke taruhan aslinya.
Apakah Anda berminat untuk bermain slot online, video poker, blackjack video, semuanya ada di sini di Situs judi rekomendasi dari admin, di mana Anda dapat menikmati pengalaman bermain yang luar biasa dan grafik yang luar biasa.
Menangkan jackpot progresif besar di Situs judi rekomendasi dari admin dengan bertaruh dengan bijak. Itu selalu disarankan untuk mengumpulkan kemenangan yang cukup sebelum meningkatkan taruhan Anda. Ingat, manajemen uang dan disiplin yang baik dapat membawa Anda jauh.
submitted by hksuper12 to u/hksuper12 [link] [comments]

Developed 2 automated strategies for a customer who hasn't paid me yet, what now?

As the title says, I've started automating strategies (made in MetaTrader5) for a acquaintance of mine some months ago, I'm a programmer (mostly back-end) and have never been interested in the market.I'm in the fourth year of High-school, have only coded games and simulations (3-4 years of experience) and it's my first work: I, knowing that initially would be getting a very low amount but that it would get substantial in the long run (somewhere like 800 EUR per month after a year), accepted to get paid on the monthly growth of the balance after it hit a certain threshold.Weeks passed and when the first iteration of the program was ready (in mid-summer), after a month of demo, we went live and he, accordingly to our deal, put the initial amount.All was going well and I started making changes: came lastly to the fifth version, hugely more risk-free and profitable than the first instalment (he decided to continue using the second version of the code on the live account because that was the last version where he made all the logic, he didn't feel okay in giving the money in the hand of an algorithm thought by a 17 years old student, I can understand that).The problem is that he, feeling probably a god-of-the-market, began making stupid things and not leaving the algorithms to take care of the situation: lastly he made a huge fuck up and lost almost everything on the account... I was pretty annoyed, but since the money was still his (we did not hit the threshold) I let it slip and continued my work.Somewhere like 3 weeks ago, he asked me to develop a system with Anti-Martingale to recover the situation and regain what was lost: I, even though was not really okay with that, accepted and started making it.The new algorithm was set up in demo last Monday and I was finally getting some relax (I also started making a second version) when he, Wednesday morning, sent me a screenshot of his smartphone where there were what was left of the real money he lost: he had opened some manual orders on USDJPY and lost them all.I got angry because I had worked all that time only because of that money, I knew that if my work was nicely done we could have regained everything and more, he told me that he could put other money on the account and that we should have stayed strong.I snapped, went to my home, connected to the servers and shut everything down: I explained to him that I'm sick of his bullshit, he fucked up everything I did in these months and if he wanted to still work with me and get away with his way of doing he should have started paying me, he said nothing about it and asked to speak with me next Monday, I think he doesn't have any intention of paying me.
What should I do?Is there somewhere where I can find someone who would buy all of this work?How much should I ask for this?Know that all of this happened in the span of 5 months.
TL;DR I've automated and perfectioned 2 strategies in the span of 5 months (I'm only a videogame developer, not a professional) and don't know what to do with them because my customer is probably not going to pay for them.

UPDATE: After having spoke to him the customer has decided to pay me when the last version will be finished, then we'll be done with business between us.
submitted by Mithrillo_von_Kolt to Forex [link] [comments]

Need Help For A Bot On A Gamblign Site

Hi guys,
I got myself a bot for a counter strike global offensive gambling site that works the martingale or anti-martingale.
I was just wondering how I can make it stop when my balance get to a certain amount of coins.
here's the code:
// CONFIG
var initialBetAmount = 1;
var mode = 'martingale';
// can be 'martingale' or 'anti-martingale' (WAT? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system))
var betColor = 'red'; // can be 'red' or 'black'
function tick() { var a=getStatus();
if(a!==lastStatus&&"unknown"!==a) //Si a n'égale pas le dernier status et si unknow n'égale pas a { switch(a){case"waiting":bet(); break; case"rolled":rolled()} lastStatus=a,printInfo()} }
function checkBalance() { return getBalance() function printInfo() { var a=" \nStatus: "+lastStatus+
"\nRolls played: "+currentRollNumber+
"\nInitial bet amount: "+initialBetAmount+
"\nCurrent bet amount: "+currentBetAmount+
"\nLast roll result: "+(null===wonLastRoll()?"-":wonLastRoll()?"won":"lost");
console.log(a)}
function rolled() { return"anti-martingale"===mode?void antiMartingale():(martingale(),void currentRollNumber++) }
function antiMartingale() { currentBetAmount=wonLastRoll()?2*currentBetAmount:initialBetAmount }
function martingale() { currentBetAmount=wonLastRoll()?initialBetAmount:2*currentBetAmount }
function bet() { checkBalance()&&(setBetAmount(currentBetAmount),setTimeout(placeBet,50)) }
function setBetAmount(a) { $betAmountInput.val(a) }
function placeBet() { return"red"===betColor?($redButton.click(),void(lastBetColor="red")):($blackButton.click(),void(lastBetColor="black")) }
function getStatus() { var a=$statusBar.text();
if(hasSubString(a,"Rolling in"))return"waiting";
if(hasSubString(a,"ROLLING"))return"rolling";
if(hasSubString(a,"rolled"))
{ var b=parseInt(a.split("rolled")[1]); return lastRollColor=getColor(b),"rolled" } return"unknown"}
function getBalance() { return parseInt($balance.text()) }
function hasSubString(a,b) { return a.indexOf(b)>-1 }
function getColor(a) { return 0==a?"green":a>=1&&7>=a?"red":"black" }
function wonLastRoll() { return lastBetColor?lastRollColor===lastBetColor:null }
var currentBetAmount=initialBetAmount, currentRollNumber=1, lastStatus, lastBetColor, lastRollColor, $balance=$("#balance"), $betAmountInput=$("#betAmount"), $statusBar=$(".progress #banner"), $redButton=$("#panel1-7 .betButton"), $blackButton=$("#panel8-14 .betButton"), refreshIntervalId=setInterval(tick,500);
submitted by Chrizis to javascript [link] [comments]

Intro: Microeconomic and Gambling principles applied to Algotrading.

I am making a short post for the people here about how this works and what principles might be best.
To formalize some notation:
Et = Portfolio Equity at time t
TC = transaction cost
St = stock price at time t
p(up)t = probability of an up move in price at time t
Problem: Maximize Et subject to the constraint that Et > 0 for all t (if you're bankrupt its over!)
You can buy or sell St, based on your p(up)t.
  1. Gambling conditions. (Let's start off simple). A fair game is where the Expected value is equal to the cost. Assuming an up move or down are (1,-1) respectively St is known however S_t+1 is unknown. Assume TC = 0 (will relax this in the next case). Case A).
E(St+1) = p(up)t1 + (1-p(up))t-1) + St
If I buy S now, what probability makes this a fair bet?
A fair bet would be where E(St+1) = S_t (what I put in I get back).
In this case it is 1/2 (trivial to show).
So my gambling rule for this bet would be if the probability is greater than 1/2 buy and less than one 1/2 sell.
Case B). Up and down move at (U,D) TC = 0.10 (10 cents trading cost)
E(St+1) = p(up)tU + (1-p(up))tD) + St
However, the expected value of the trade for us, to get the St must include the roundtrip transaction cost.
E(St+1) = p(up)tU + (1-p(up))tD) + St -2*TC
What is the p(up) that makes this a fair game?
Setting E(St+1) to St
0 = p(up)tU + D- p(up)tD -2TC
(the St cancels out on both sides)
2TC-D=p(up)t*(U-D)
2TC-D/(U-D)=p(up)t
So the probability of winning must be greater than the roundtrip cost, subtract D which is negative so we would be adding that, divided by the distance from win to loss. A toy example
TC = 0.01
U = 1.50
D = -1
1.02/2.50 = p(up)
40.8% = p(up)
So if the chance of winning in this case is greater than 40.8% you should play.
Recall: Goal is to maximize Et s.t. Et > 0 for all t. So going back to our previous logic, How many bad trades can we make such that Et > 0?
How do we size our trades or at least our D (stop loss) such that we are always positive given a certain number of trades at some level of confidence?
Into statistics we go!
First and foremost, is what % of equity are we risking on each trade with D? lets denote this by DRt, remember we can change D.
Recall above we had to identify bets with expectations greater than 1, given a large number of these bets we can extract an equity distribution (Et ). Sadly part of this distribution will be negative or 0, implying bankruptcy.
How do we shrink this part of the distribution? Some ideas:
  1. Martingale type system: double/increase bets with losses. Key problem The market can change and if your models are not robust at estimating probabilities you will go bankrupt faster. Advantage is IF your system is robust you will make money back and fast.
  2. Anti-Martingale system: half/decrease bets with losses Avoids the problem with the first, however increases your drawdown TIME as opposed to money.
We need to set D and U and Q (quantity of shares traded) to maximize upside while AVOIDING bankruptcy.
First we need to generate the Equity distribution.
This is NOT easy.
You need to run a simulation, the "seed" is:
For Static U/D and fixed P(win), very easy to simulate. *** Will provide code with next update****
Et+1 = Et + P(win) * (U) - (1-P(win) * D )
Reality is different.
Introduce a scaling Factor on D, K, Dt+1 = Dt * K, K = if(Et>Et-1, (1+K), (1-K) ) (pseudocode for if the last trade was a win then scale up by K, otherwise scale down by K%)
For simplicity sake assume 1:1 bet (will relax this later on)
Et+1 = Et + P(win) * (Dt) - (1-P(win) * D_t )
Far more complex! as each step is dependent on the previous one for the size of K, however after say 100,000 trials a distribution will emerge.
(will continue later)
submitted by kylebalkissoon to algotrading [link] [comments]

All the pets are belong to us.

4 yo fixed 90 lb lab mastiff mix, mine at 3 months. Very low energy- partly breed, partly epilepsy meds. At about 1 year he began to show leash reactivity towards other dogs, and began guarding toys at the dog park.
No bites on humans. Perfect with humans. Level 3 bite on the *ss of a vagrant Chihuahua that charged him in his own yard, broke skin on the front leg of a dog at daycare.
Gets 1.5 hours of walk / dog park per day. Resents much of it. Suburbs, but unfenced yard. Indoor dog.
Selective / energy leash reactive, and it looks like it might be a fear thing. Trigger is posture, demeanour and size of other dog. Reactivity is puffing, pulling, lunging, growling, hackling, barking, tail-up aggression. Began LAD & counter conditioning at 1 year old. He does ok. He's on a martingale.
Anyway, the current issue:
I take the idiot to dog parks, and in general he stands around like a cow, sometimes putting in 50 yards of chase while growling ferociously. The balance he spends introducing himself to the other owners by mastiff-leaning into them and getting pet.
Twice now (in about 100 trips), he has walked up to people and introduced himself and their dogs may or may not have stiffened up a bit and oriented (not sure if I am reading the body language right), while maintaining a 6 foot distance from my dog and the owner...at which point my dog goes what appears to be full dominance display- sudden approach, exaggerated growl, rearing up and going for the front-paw stomp on their back. Depending on the recipient's response to this anti-social behavior, a fight may ensue. The fights are inhibited (ears / face / scruff), but my dog is large enough that he could injure.
In practice, if you don't catch the other dog's stiffening up or lining up, this looks like a COMPLETELY unmotivated attack, while in fact I think it is my dog reacting to a fairly polite low level protest from the other dog. I think my dog is getting guardy about the petting resource.
Looking for diagnostic tips and any management / training tips on human guarding, and perhaps any systemic approaches to getting my dog to yield to low level protests from other dogs.
I hate to take away the dog park but realize that may be required. On a side note, I'd also dearly like to train the dog to only approach humans if INVITED but have had only limited success- he really, REALLY likes people. All people.
Any thoughts?
submitted by leo_agiad to reactivedogs [link] [comments]

Collar choices and other things.

Cesear came with a prong style control collar but not everyone has a high opinion of it so we got a gentle leader head collar to try( just got it today). He pulls without trying and we would like to tone it down. Would an anti pull chest harness be better to try? Most of the dogs i have worked with used halti/gentle leader or a martingale with no issues.
Training is going well except he still has issues with some dogs especially if they bark or are yappy. He also has issues with intoxicated or unstable people(no issues with homeless types which is awesome as i live very close to the bottle depot.
In just 2 weeks he went from unsure of the crate to napping in it all by himself. He is having some seperation issues but that is normal and we are working on it.
He is still only eating once a day in the evening. Is this normal or do i just need to wait it out. We are trying to get him on a morning/evening food schedule.
So far only 1 incident at the offleash park when he jumped up on someone when he was really excited. The person picked up thier dog to leave and he jumped up and we had to leash him and seperate him until he calmed down.
submitted by Shadowslave604 to Rottweiler [link] [comments]

[Discussion] Favorite no pull harnesses?

I'm on the hunt for my dog's 3rd harness in 2 months.
When I first adopted her, I had her in a martingale collar only. She pulled like CRAZY and we hadn't started training yet so I got an EZ Walk, No-Pull Harness (it was easy to quickly buy at my local PetSmart since I was looking for a quick buy). I accidentally got half a size too big since I was in a rush.
That harness (despite being a little too large) combined with initial training, made a huge difference. Then, I found that she managed to get her legs out of the harness. Where I quickly went over and got her, and rearranged her leash to connect to her martingale collar. I immediately went and bought her SECOND harness - the same EZ Walk but in the smaller size.
Fast forward about a month and she got particularly interested in a squirrel and managed to almost get 1 leg out again! I'm seeing that no matter what, this harness ends up getting loose in the front which allows her to pull her legs out of it.
I'm seriously considering the Freedom No Pull Harness with the associated 4 Config Training Leash.
Thoughts? What's your favorite no-pull, anti-escape harness for your dogs? Any tips/advice before I make my 3rd harness purchase?
submitted by nachocheesey05 to dogs [link] [comments]

Did anyone try Martingale in Algo trading?

Any experience it actually worked that you made money?
submitted by carpetbamboo to algotrading [link] [comments]

Clicked on this sub ready to be offended, but then...

...found that most of us seem to hate the same people? Disclaimer, I am a dog owner, but I hope you guys don't mind if I vent, because this actually seems maybe like the best place for it.
Context, I have a 5-month-old husky. She is my first personal dog (had farm dogs just kind of AROUND growing up), but I went in armed with an animal training background (trained horses professionally for years, and there's a fair amount of crossover) and a lot of research, and I got her knowing that huskies are a very quirky breed and I'd have to put a lot of work into her. Started on focus and impulse control the day I got her at 8 weeks and now at 5 months, she is...better behaved than literally every single adult dog we meet out in public. By a HUGE margin. To the point to where I would be embarrassed for their owners if it weren't so damned infuriating. And people constantly go "Oh wow, she's SO well behaved! How did you get her to behave like that?!" and when I tell them her training routine, they get defensive and go "Oh, well, xyz works for us" (clearly not, but OK) OR, almost more annoyingly (I can't decide which is worse), "well we already do all that, so." .....No you don't, or your dog wouldn't be behaving like it is, period.
I can barely even take mine to "dog friendly" places because "dog friendly" is code for "filled with horrible untrained 'problem dogs' (that someone yanked out of a shelter for their Rescue™ gold star despite being NOWHERE NEAR knowledgeable/equipped enough to handle even a normal, even-tempered dog from a good breeder) who will choke themselves half to death to tackle you and your puppy, who is calm and minding her own business at heel, to the damn ground because they're just so FRIENDLY!!!!11 and want to say hi!!!!!!" Or worse, dogs that are ACTUALLY aggressive, especially leash aggressive. We've met SO MANY of these at parks and breweries, and of course the owners can never control them—also in places we literally can't avoid going, like the vet waiting room.
A coworker invited us to a "dog-friendly" brewery recently and it was just a hellscape of BIG, STRONG, completely untrained dogs doing literally whatever they wanted at the end of a 6' leash while their owners completely ignored them standing there talking. If you have the dog with you, you are training it, period, whether you mean to be or not. Why are you not paying ANY attention at all to your dog's behavior? If you aren't going to be actively monitoring it, why is it not restrained? We stepped inside and took one look around and my pup looked at me like "Mom, what the actual fuck, get me out of here"—she is used to breweries, but the kind where she can walk in without being literally assaulted and then just lie silently under the table while I eat/talk to friends.
She has to go to daycare (note: right next to a very busy road) because I work, and on her very first day, I had just checked her in (so the desk girl was gone taking her to the back) but realized I'd forgotten to put her name on her food, so I hung back to ask for a Sharpie or something, and this woman bursts through the door being LITERALLY DRAGGED by a bulldog who had to be 90-100lbs, in a flat martingale collar (note: very mild in the range of "anti-pulling" tools), yelling and making desperate noises while her dog happily plowed forward all the way across the room to the back door. She must have seen the look on my face, because she said "I've got a bad leg" by way of explanation, and then "She came from a shelter just about a year ago, we think she was abused. You wouldn't believe it, but she's come so far!"
Like, I hate to break it to you, lady, but 99.999999% of dogs in shelters WERE NEVER abused, they just were never socialized (critical socialization window closes at 12 weeks, MAYBE 14 if you wanna argue, so good luck fixing that in your adult nutcase without that professional trainebehaviorist you don't want to spend money on) and never trained. And YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS WITH ANY OF THEM, BECAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT TRAINING DOGS. My 5-month-old can heel off leash (including sit when I stop, back up when I back up, spin when I spin) in public spaces she's never been in before (edit: as in dog parks and dog bars! Bars that double as dog parks, so when you go in there IS the expectation of off-leash dogs, not just out in public where people are trying to shop or eat or whatever; that's just not safe for anyone involved), and you haven't been able to correct, or pay someone better than you to correct, your dog DRAGGING YOU EVERYWHERE in a YEAR? Please, for the love of god, give it to someone who knows how to rehab it or just put it the fuck down, because one of these days your *bad leg* is going to give out and the dog IS ABSOLUTELY going to get loose and get hurt and quite probably hurt someone else in the process.
I don't understand how these people aren't at all bothered or embarrassed by their dogs' behavior. I hate being jumped on (ESPECIALLY when my clothes are clean and the paws are muddy, omfg), slobbered on, generally having my space invaded. Just because I have a dog with me doesn't mean I'm OK with that shit (and neither is she, generally, but that's another rant for another day). No it's not "just how they are, oh lolol you know how it is :)" No, I don't, because I trained my dog. I would be BEYOND mortified if she jumped on a stranger (not that she physically could, because if she's too overstimulated to heel on her own, I keep her leash too short for her to have room to break). Even if people didn't have trauma, allergies, or just a strong desire to keep their damn clothes clean, IT'S RUDE. It's like if you let your kid just randomly snatch things out of a stranger's hands or something, though I guess people do that too. I don't tolerate my fucking animals being rude to me, because I bust my ass for long hours at my stressful-ass job to keep them fed and housed. The least they can do in return is be decent.
Other husky owners are probably some of the worst, too, because it gets written off as "just the breed." Barking nonstop for 5 hours straight? Huskies are just talkers! "Huskies can't be off leash"—well maybe if you taught a solid heel and recall, they could, because uh, mine sure does fine (edit: she's off leash on horse farms/trails, both mine and ones owned by friends who are OK with it), and she's going to a board&train for ecollar proofing just to make damn sure as soon as she's old enough. I'm on some husky groups on Facebook and people constantly post pictures of COUCHES, DOORS, all kinds of household shit just FUCKING DESTROYED with "lol oh huskies!!!!" Are you shitting me??? I would fucking lose it.
Please enjoy this list of household items my dog has destroyed:

That's it, that's the list.
I just firmly believe 99.9999999999% of people who own dogs have NO BUSINESS owning dogs. It's crazy to me, especially since they have the capacity to be very dangerous in the wrong hands. Would you let someone who hadn't passed a driving test get behind the wheel of a car and get on the road?? NO!!!! In the horse world if someone is like "Hi, I've never trained a horse before or even taken riding lessons, but I think horses are really cool, so I'm going to buy an unbroke 2-year-old and bring it along myself" EVERYONE jumps on them like "No, you're fucking stupid, 'green plus green equals black and blue,' go find a trainer NOW and don't consider buying even a trained horse until you've been riding and handling and doing all the associated work/care 3x a week for at least a year." People want a nice easy friendly pet that they don't have to put any actual work or research into—I mean, that doesn't exist, but the closest thing would probably be a cat. You want something to cuddle when you get home from work while you sit your ass on the couch and put no effort in, YOU WANT A CAT. I seriously wish there were an exam you had to pass or something to be approved to own a dog. Responsible people would have absolutely nothing to worry about. It would make being out in public so much more pleasant, with or without the dog. Ugh.
/rant
Thanks, guys, it felt good to get that off my chest :') Hopefully no one minds, but if so I will delete/leave, just LMK.
submitted by firewings86 to Dogfree [link] [comments]

Worst Mistake

What is the biggest mistake you have ever made? It could've been selling early, bad entry, or entering at all. Me personally i sold AMD at 11.75 which would've doubled my account if I would have sold today
submitted by PristineTeen300 to RobinHood [link] [comments]

Is this the correct reaction to play biting? (plus, advice on anti anxiety meds?)

Hello,
We have a large breed rescue named Wally. We got him around 6 months, he is now just under 9 months and is 81lbs. (Lab/shepherd cross, most likely). He is quick to learn, eager to please, very loving at home, has now shown any aggression. He's an energetic pup but I feel like that might be his age. He does bark at other dogs from the house and truck but this was WAY more frequent when we got him. It's really calmed down now and it's always with a wagging tail. When he gets out to greet the dogs he's quite thrilled.

I'll break this up into two questions:
  1. We took him to the vet for the 2nd time (different vet that saw him each time) and he was quite nervous both times. He doesn't growl but he's clearly uncomfortable and puts his tail between his legs. The 2nd vet recommended anti-anxiety meds. As a history; he's fearful in the odd, random situation (I can find no pattern other than it's when we're outside of the house.). His fear manifests as nervousness to extreme nervousness when it shows. As an example, we'll be in the dog park and he'll be playing and running around and suddenly a dog will come up to us (size, breed and sex always vary) and Wally is suddenly running away with his tail tucked between his legs. The same thing happens with certain humans (other humans he'll run right up to and say hello, certain people he is immediately terrified of, will put his tail between his legs and run away. He will even growl sometimes if they try and pet him). I'd say this happens 10-15% of the time we're out of the house. The remainder of our trips are excellent. He seems to love humans (LOVES children), loves little dogs and will tolerate most dogs his size. He does well off leash and on hikes. We've taken him to restaurants with us, and all kinds of situations where he is just fine. No panting, no pacing and never any nervous barking. Is the vet being quick to jump to prescription solutions? Wally does spend about an hour or more in the evenings at home panting and I wonder if that's normal, or that is a sign of his anxiety. I also wonder if perhaps CBD might be a better solution to look into at first, as opposed to pharmaceuticals. Very open to suggestions on this.
  2. When my husband or I take Wally on leash walks around our downtown condo, he gets over-excited and starts jumping and 'play' biting (you may call it play biting because he's happy, but my god does it hurt if he gets you. He has never broken skin but I'm covered in bruises). We do take him to training but they have not addresses this as it only occurs when he's on leash with us and we're just getting going, or just getting home from a walk. To counter this, we have got a very loose over-the-nose collar (we use a martingale for his regular collar), and have been told to TOTALLY ignore the behaviour. When we take him for walks we always have high-reward treats ready to enforce good behaviour. When it occurs, because it hurts so much... I have been holding his leash to the ground so that he's forced to sit or lie down and I stay there until he's calmer. I do not say anything as he seems to react with tail wags if we say 'stop' or 'no' loudly. He clearly doesn't understand that it's not ok. I feel like if we can keep up the ignoring the behaviour and keep up with our regular training, this will go away, but i'm looking for advice/reassurance as my husband has reached his wits end with it and doesn't want to take him out on leash anymore.
Sorry for the essay-length post. I have searched this reddit for similar answers but it seems like everyone has a slightly different situation. Thanks everyone!
submitted by Jemma6 to Dogtraining [link] [comments]

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submitted by stroke_bot to nullthworldproblems [link] [comments]

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submitted by stroke_bot to nullthworldproblems [link] [comments]

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submitted by stroke_bot to nullthworldproblems [link] [comments]

Relapsed again:/

After losing my $150, I decided I would do something completely different. Self-exclusion evidently would never work; there are simply too many casinos out there that I can sign up for. What I decided I would do, however, is purchase a gambling-blocking software. But of course, I was still down $150, and I wanted to make that up first. I did something extremely reckless again, and deposited over $1k. Decided I would either make some good profit, or lose it all. First bet, $250, I hit a fucking blackjack. Not only did I make my money back, but I was $225 up. I couldn't believe my luck. I went to withdraw, and it was cancelled. I thought maybe it was because my verification documents were not properly processed. However, after contacting support, they told me it was because I did not meet the wagering requirement of at leas 1x my deposit amount.
My heart sank... I was going to have to wager another grand before being able to withdraw? Then I thought, there might be a way out of this. I thought I was very clever, went over to the roulette table, and put down two $500 bets. First one on red, second on black. As long as the ball didn't land in green, I would get my money back, and meet my wagering requirement. Fortunately for me, it didn't, and I was able to request a withdrawal. Only problem was that my verification documents had not been approved yet. So, over the last couple of days, I played a number of $5 hands, and with a bit of martingale betting, managed to double my profit. So, in a couple of days, I'll be $350 richer, I'll have my anti-gambling software installed, and I'll (hopefully) be gambling free.

I know these stories don't usually end as well as this, but along with selling my iPad, on which I played a very addicting game for a couple of years, I feel like I'm taking the first steps to putting all this shit behind me. I appreciate all the support, and if any of you need help, feel free to reach out.

Ben

submitted by sanctifiedvg to problemgambling [link] [comments]

NLTPAnalyst's Week 9 Previews and Predictions [A TEAM EDITION]

It's the final week of the season and lots of exciting action between teams fighting for a spot in the playoffs. A lot of teams are still in the running and will be looking for a little bit of luck to go their way.
 
It's been fun doing these this season. Maybe fun isn't the right word... but anyway..
 
Thank you all that have been grateful for the content. And a special thanks to those of you that I've abused over the season, wassa, lightght, businessbird, JDoe and the rest of the A team pandas, and probably many more I'm not thinking of. You all have been gracious even when criticized a lot.
 
Flairbnb (12-4) vs. Ball or Nothing (9-7)
 
Both of these teams will make the playoffs, and both of these teams are probably looking to boost their seeding this week.
 
Ball or Nothing has been able to turn their season around with Thick Shady 2nd in the league in returns, anchoring the defense with prjct playing solid support. To start the season, it was Oppo and Fractal. At that point, Fractal, as a defender was capping just as much as the offense.
 
Prjct's moves to pick himself up for 100 wp's, trade oppo for Thick Shady in what appeared to be a heavily lopsided trade, and moving fractal to offense with bbb has paid off.
 
They'll be going up against Flairbnb, who hasn't needed to make any moves to improve their A team roster. Smurf l0rd and ess have been dominant. Smurf is leading the league in prevent, by an absurd amount and is 3rd in returns. Ess has also put up impressive numbers and successfully transitioned to a support role for smurf lord.
 
Both of these teams feature a roster full of players that can move up to minors next season. For Flairbnb, the offense of Beef Jukie has been stellar, and we could see him getting some majors minutes, since he's already been a loaner for MLTP. He's 3rd in the league in caps and 4th in hold. 9.93 O gasp and a 98 O Nish.
 
This game is a preview of what we could end up seeing in the playoffs. BoN is a different team than what we've seen in the first half of the season, but Flairbnb has impressive talent and a dynamic pairing on defense. It's hard to say who has the advantage.
 
Thick Shady has a tendency to be overly aggressive, to the point where it leads to some opportunities for the opposing offense. He usually recovers just fine and gets the return or can count on prjct to cover, but against a player like Beef Jukie, you can expect him to be able to capitalize on any mistakes made by the defense.
 
I'm not sure how the offense of bbb and fractal will do against Rob and Ess. bbb hasn't been on the top 20 leaderboards for caps or hold (technically him and fractal are tied for 20th in caps) but I know he is more talented than the stats are reflecting.
 
Overall, this should be a close matchup but I think Flairbnb has the advantage on both maps.
 
Prediction - Flairbnb sweep
 
Boston Pops (3-13) vs. Over The Pants Handoffs (11-5)
 
OTPHO will be looking for a sweep this week to possibly take the #2 seed overall in the playoffs. I don't think they really have a preference in who they play in playoffs, but I do believe this game matters to them. Ball Gasol and Rattpack will both be looking to finish the season in the #1 and #2 spots on the leaderboard for caps. Gasol is 6th in hold, rattpack in 11th. The hold numbers are very respectable, and some of the best, considering how often they're capping.
 
Their defense is solid, with Anti-Re and Waterwheel, both having solid seasons but I have questioned at times whether Heisy would be better off starting on defense instead, but either way, knowing he's there "just in case", is a pretty big comfort that most captains don't have.
 
For Boston Pops, they'll be looking to have one last win in what has been a difficult season for the rookie captain CatPuke. The Crossover pick up was huge, and gives them a chance to cap enough to win on any given week, especially with Show Goat available again to play defense.
 
Mudkip and Crossover should have plenty of opportunities to get out of base over the course of the game. The question is, will they have opportunities to cap? Show Goat being back for the BP squad should help anchor down the defense. His partner will be iSuck, who I really don't believe is ready to play A team but at this point, why does it matter?
 
One bright side of the BP season is Mudkip. When the season started, I didn't think mudkip really deserved to be on A team, but it does look like he's playing solid support for crossover, and also capping at least once per half. He may end up landing on A team again next season.
 
I do think they'll be able to put up a pretty good fight against OTPHO. Unfortunately, I don't see the defense being able to lock things down enough to provide capping opportunities for the offense. Ball Gasol and Rattpack, are extremely motivated to finish the season being top 2 cap leaders and will be looking to utterly destroy the BP defense.
 
Prediction - OTPHO sweeps
 
Rectal Ranger 3D (5-11) vs. Soviet Ballers (5-11)
 
Strangely, with a 5-11 record, I believe the Soviet Ballers are still able to clinch the 10th playoff spot, while RR3D is eliminated. 3 of their 11 losses have come in overtime, which gives them enough points to still be in the hunt, but will need help from some other teams. Sadly for them, one of the losses came last week to Boston Pops in overtime.
 
RR3D is better than their record implies. IrishBlizzard is putting up some of the best stats in the league for defenders. He's 5th in returns, 8th in prevent, but doesn't have much help on defense with ballparts being gone.
 
Schweddys has been putting up solid stats as well, tied for 8th in the league in caps. Unfortunately, MrFruitzy hasn't been doing much to help out. He started off the season pretty hot, but then returned to earth, averaging less than 1 cap per half.
 
For Soviet Ballers, they've had their fair share of issues too. The line up looks good, if a little bit of luck went their way, they would be 8-8 right now instead of 5-11.
 
Martingale has been doing what he can to carry this team but it hasn't been enough. He is 15th overall in caps, and 3rd in hold. His long hold times would make it seem like he'd be higher in caps. I would normally blame the defense but Warped and Oppo are both top 10 in returns, and putting up solid prevent numbers. Martingale's offensive partner, Halophile, hasn't had the best season so far.
 
Halophile, in a support role, is 19th in hold, but has only had 15 caps in 251 minutes.
Both teams have their weaknesses, but they also have explosive players that can make a big difference in the game. It's hard to predict a winner with this matchup, but I believe the SVB team is more of a complete team and has fewer glaring weaknesses.
 
Prediction - SVB Sweep
 
Primordial Clam Chowder (6-10) vs. Six FLags (13-3)
 
PCC is fighting for their lives this week against the 2nd best team in the league (record wise). PCC does have a chance to clinch the 10th playoff spot but they will need help from other teams, and probably a sweep as well.
 
That doesn't look good against a team that has been extremely dominant. They've lost "I'm a Horse" for the season but that really isn't much of an impact with GUTS ready to contribute on A team again. GUTS is a talented player with good mechanics, and deserving of A team. The only thing that is sometimes questionable is decision making, but playing along side Elsie, is going to help him improve for next season, and also cover for any potential mistakes he could make. I don't see GUTS being a downgrade to Horse, they're just different, and GUTS is good without timers.
 
Elsie has been extremely dominant and a great addition to the team. She is a threat to any opposing offense, averaging a little over 1.5 returns per minute. Since she's had limited minutes, she's not in a top spot in the leaderboard but when you break it down to per minute stats, she is 2nd best in the league in returns, above doris but slightly below Thick Shady. She's also #1 in league for tags per minute.
 
The 6F defense is strong, and while some may see GUTS as the weak link, that would be a mistake for PCC. GUTS is very capable and facing Elsie is going to be pretty scary. If there's a team that could have success though, PCC's offense looks like it could.
 
Ephew has been killing the league as far as hold times go, with Misaki playing solid support but also as a 2 way ball sometimes covering on defense. There's a lot of hold, but not as many caps, and it's not because of Ephew or Misaki, the problem lies with the defense.
 
Warden and long balls or Denna are not going to be able to keep the flag in base long enough for Ephew and Misaki to cap enough. Honestly, Warden looks like he's been carried this entire season, between Denna, long balls, and even Cheetosrule last week. He's better than what we've seen, but based on what we've seen this season, his 59 D Nish should put him on B team.
 
The defense is what will determine the game tonight. I don't see Warden and long balls giving them a chance to win against Juke Dough and Moobear. Moobear, after receiving a call up from B team (which he dominated) has been pretty good for A team. In 140 minutes he's been able to get a 92 O NISH along with 19 caps.
 
With the struggles continuing for Warden, I wonder if Hjalpa will try to shake things up. Perhaps Ephew and Bumballbee (or corbeh) on offense, with Misaki and Cheetos on defense. Of course, I'd like to see Intrepid play A team but out of all the weeks I suggested it, Hjalpa has ignored me. Just like supermarkets have ignored his pleas for dairy
 
Whatever happens, I'm sure these will be well fought games.
 
Prediction - Six Flags sweep (I hope Hjalpa does the wire post, Juke Dough gets sleepy and doesn't like posting it)
 
TC Jukes (10-6) vs. Pursuit of Cappiness (4-12)
 
PoC has struggled with availability issues all season long. Now that both A and B teams are eliminated from the playoffs, you have to wonder if the availability issues will be even worse this final week in the season.
 
In theory, we should see Businessbird and Papajohn on defense, with The Dot and Sir Cle Jerk on offense, which appeared to be a strong team. Papa and Businessbird seem to be the only ones that consistently show up. Last week we saw Nameless get some A team minutes with Papa John on offense, which wasn't a bad experiment, only losing by 1 cap on Monarch against Ball or Nothing.
 
TC jukes is in the playoffs, and will be looking to improve their seeding. Ron Hextball has been leading the charge on offense. Unfortunately, the better he gets, the more toxic he becomes. Could you imagine the toxicity levels if he plays minors next season? We'll all need to wear hazmat suits.
 
In all seriousness though, he's been doing extremely well and deserves props on that. His 37 caps is good enough for top 5 in the league, and is 10th in hold. His partner, Tim Hortons is still top 20 in both categories, a little lower than I would have expected at the beginning of the season, but he's been invaluable to their team. He has basically the same core numbers as Ron, hold per grab is the same, chain %, flaccid rate is a bit better, but it hasn't translated to as many caps.
 
ROFL and Carys will be holding down the defense, which against Sir Cle and The Dot, could be more difficult than you would imagine if you're just judging this team by their record. ROFL is 2nd in prevent, top 10 in returns, with Carys not far behind.
 
PoC has played good teams pretty tight, even with all their availability issues. TC Jukes is a very cohesive team though, and with great players having great seasons. ROFL and Carys should be able to handle the PoC offense well enough to provide countless capping opportunities for Tim and Ron.
 
Hard to see this going any other way..
 
Prediction - TC Jukes Sweep
 
The Pointless Warriors (7-9) vs. Ball My Life (8-8)
 
The Pointless Warriors are on a hot streak, trying to make the playoffs and they'll get their chance tonight against another team fighting to keep their position in the standings.
 
TPW is coming off 2 weeks in a row where they swept. They swept PoC, but more impressively, they were able to sweep a very strong C.R.E.A.M. team. C.R.E.A.M. has swept BML twice this season, though the last matchup they had was pretty close, losing only by 1 cap in both games.
 
For BML, glide and Ball-E will be doing what they can to make things happen offensively. Ball-E has really turned things around, the struggles were there in the first few weeks of the season but he's ended up in the top 10 for both caps and hold. Glide is also doing well, top 20 in both categories even though he's played a game or two on defense (i think?).
 
They'll be facing a TPW defense that could consist of either Officer Dan, Hooblagoo, LemonPledge or Psychic. It will probably be Hooblagoo and LemonPledge though, and while they did well against C.R.E.A.M., I'm not sure that defense is strong enough to stop Ball-E and Glide. LemonPledge doesn't put up flashy stats, and maybe that's why I'm not sure they'll be able to stop the BML offense, but he is one of the best in the league when it comes to prevent per return.
 
The TPW offense has become pretty scary. FragrantFowl and Tofuman have been working very well together, and is definitely one of the reasons for recent success. They'll be up against Squeeb and Bluejays, and while Squeeb is a very good aggressive defender, you have to wonder if Bluejays will be able to cover him as well playing on Centra.
 
TPW is extremely motivated, a sweep guarantees them a playoff spot. One of the maps this week is Transilio, and a repeat of a week 1 matchup between these two teams in which BML was able to sweep. Transilio was better played, but TPW lost by 3, granted, this isn't the same team we saw in week 1, they have improved a lot. Both teams did well last week on Monarch, and it's hard to see an advantage for either team.
 
This will definitely be a good game and it could go either way. TPW really needs a sweep, though I believe they could technically still make the playoffs with a split and overtime loss, but they would also need help from other teams.
 
If squeeb has gotten used to his new (worse) ping, then it could be enough to give them the edge, but it's going to be difficult to see either team getting the sweep.
 
Prediction - split
 
C.R.E.A.M. (12-4) vs. Whitecaps (4-12)
 
Whitecaps have been eliminated from the playoffs, but C.R.E.A.M. will be looking to possibly improve their playoff seeding.
 
The offense of Manayyys and OG Diddles has been pretty solid, with manayyys top 10 in both hold and caps, and diddles top 15 in both categories. They'll be up against WhiteBalker and gh0st, which should be more of a challenge than most would expect. gh0st has been good, 6th overall in returns and top 10 in prevent. Fender ended up losing on the trade that sent Ball-E to BML and brought them Ranger, who is out indefinitely.
 
That gives WhiteBalker an opportunity to step up. He's been a fringe A team player the last couple of seasons, and will be looking to help his team end the season with a win, as well as improve his draft stock for next season. He's put up a solid 87 O Nish on B team, but is more experienced on defense.
 
The offense of Carp and Fapst3r hasn't been as strong as I expected. Fapst3r is having a disappointing season so far but it would be nice to end it on a high note. CARP is still putting up solid numbers, top 15 in caps and top 10 in hold, but it hasn't translated to many wins. Fap is having an underwhelming season, capping less than once per half.
 
They'll have to figure things out offensively against a very good defense consisting of Bergieberg and Ralph Wiggum. They've had a lot of success against other offenses, with a prevent focused defense that gives the offense plenty of capping opportunities.
 
They've given up the 2nd lowest amount of caps in the league, so it appears to be working out for them. Going up against Whitecaps, who have the 2nd lowest amount of caps, should prove to be an easy job for the C.R.E.A.M. defense.
 
In week 1, these teams faced off and will be replaying one of the games on Transilio. C.R.E.A.M. was able to secure the win back then, with an 8-2 victory. Both teams lost last week on Monarch.
 
Prediction - C.R.E.A.M. sweeps
 
Insane Cap Posse (7-9) vs. Jukkake (13-3)
 
Interesting match up here, with Jukkake getting swept last week by TTAN and ICP fighting for a playoff spot. ICP is currently 10th in the standings, and it's not looking good for them to keep the playoff hopes alive. Even if they secure a split, they aren't guaranteed to make the playoffs.
 
Jukkake got swept last week, but I feel like that may be a bit deceptive. They were able to lose both games and still practically guarantee a #1 seed for the playoffs. I haven't seen the EU since it was never put in the Wire. I'm not accusing them of foul play.. but.. hard to imagine Doris and The Tyrant giving up 9 caps on wormy to TTAN when the week prior Doris secured the all time return record, and one of the maps was Wormy.
 
For ICP, the offense of Acapuck and d0pe should be able to get some opportunities against The Tyrant and Doris, but ICP has really been less dominant than I would have expected. d0pe played defense last week, which was an interesting decision, not that he did bad, but losing an offensive threat like that, to play defense instead doesn't really make sense.
 
Both Acapuck and d0pe have been putting up solid stats. d0pe is 11th in caps, 5th in hold, with acapuck still finding himself top 10 in caps and 16th in hold. Offensively, ICP has things under control it seems.
 
Their defense on the otherhand, has been struggling a bit. Wassa and lightght find themsleves 19th and 20th in prevent overall. Nowhere to be found on the returns leaderboard and I've been suggesting Herbert. get the A team call up but I give up on making that suggestion. It's too little too late.
 
Jukkake swept ICP week 1, and will look to do it again. Romulus and Esoog should be able to be pretty dominant against the ICP defense. Esoog has been killing it against much better defensive pairings, landing himself top 5 in caps and 2nd in the league in hold. Doris and The Tyrant give the offense plenty of opportunities to cap, and I don't see that changing this week.
 
If Jukkake wants to sweep... they will. RIP ICP's playoff hopes.
 
Prediction - Jukkake Sweeps
 
Pequenos Pandas (8-8) vs. The Team About Nothing (7-9)
 
It's crazy to think that TTAN, who has a positive cap differential may not make the playoffs even though 4 teams above them have a negative cap differential.
 
The Pandas, who I've predicted to get swept pretty much every single week, have been on a hot streak, finding themselves an opportunity to make the playoffs if they can just hold on for this week.
 
TTAN on the other-hand, has just come off a week where they swept Jukkake, the number 1 team overall.
 
A lot of that can be attributed to the secret weapon they have, HYPETRAIN who played offense and did pretty well against the best defense in the league. Will TTAN continue with the week 8 line up they used to give them a chance to clinch a playoff spot?
 
BallAnka playing defense may not be a bad idea, afterall, with someone like Fenix Funk 5, you could play anyone with him, he still puts up crazy stats. He's leading the league in returns and top 5 in prevent. If BallAnka can play solid prevent with him, forcing bad grabs for fenix to quickly get the return, then I like the move and they should have success against what I believe to be a very weak offense of the pandas who has capped the 3rd lowest amount in the league.
 
The Pandas haven't quite figured out the offense yet. G1nseng, SpiKing, Some Man 7, maybe even JDoe, who the hell knows who will end up playing offense for them? I'm not sure JDoe even knows yet.
 
The real strength of the pandas, and what has kept them in a position to possibly make the playoffs, is their defense. Spiking, Eldenn, and JDoe are all very solid defenders, and the addition of Eldenn makes them team a lot tougher to beat. They'll be facing off against an offense of SelfySyntax, and possibly HYPETRAIN or BallAnka.
 
Unfortunately for the pandas, the defense is not going to rack up 10 minutes of prevent per player, and the opposing offense will get out. They really need their own offense to step up, rack up some hold, and wait for solid capping opportunities if they want to win. The aggressive play style of Fenix Funk 5, is going to be tough to beat, especially with a weak offense.
 
I know it's kind of a meme now, always picking the Pandas to get swept, but hey, at least I'm kind to the B team. TTAN swept the 1st week when these teams played, with a shut out on transilio. Pandas have made big improvements to the team, but I just don't see them taking a game this week.
 
Prediction - TTAN sweeps
submitted by NLTPanalyst to NLTP [link] [comments]

Starting with almost nothing, I made almost $500,000 gambling with Bitcoin. I then lost it all in about 60 seconds. I am now $50k in debt and will most likely lose my job, my visa status, my fiancee. AMA.

EDIT: 01/12/14
EDIT: Thank you all for taking the time to read this. The overwhelming majority of your responses have been very supportive, and I feel that I got a lot of perspective. I am in tears right now, because in my self-loathing state I really did not expect so much positive feedback. I need to come clean to my fiancee, because that is the one variable that I can control.
This is a story of luck, hope, greed, despair, stupidity. Over the past 10 days I have gone one a rollercoaster ride of the full spectrum of human emotion. I am trying to live down what happened, and maybe this AMA will help me. I feel this can work both ways too, and I am grateful for any advice I receive. Hopefully also it will help you!
I say that I hope my story will help you and I really mean that any of you, because let me start off by saying that I am not a gambler, and I have never even exhibited gambling tendencies before. I am a risktaker and I enjoy new experiences, but I have always considered myself responsible and I have a sound understanding of the maths behind gambling. I know that the house always wins. But after what happened to me, how quickly I got sucked in, how much money I made, and how it all ended just days later, I honestly do not feel that I was fully in control of my actions. If it happened to me, it can happen to you too, and I sincerely hope that after reading this, it never will.
Let me give some more specific details, so that you have a more complete picture. I will fill in the rest in response to your questions.
EDIT: I ran out of space for proof, please see comments.
So this is pretty much my story. I meant for this to be short, but I now I'm almost at the word limit. I hope there is still room for questions!
I realize that there are a lot of people who will say that I had it coming, and I fully accept that. The truth is that I am a bad person, and it was not even some conflict of good and bad, this was just all bad. I lose as a human being, and I deserve nothing but the worst of what life has to offer me in the future. And if I sound incongruently cheerful, it's probably because the gravity of the situation has not fully sunk in yet. Trust me, I am not cheerful. I have literally lost everything, I am suicidal, and there is literally no silver lining here. So please reserve your judgment; I will be judged to the fullest extent over however long a time I have left to live.
Gambling details:
1 Some of the names and places may be fictitious.
2 I was never a gambler, but I do have a degree in math: there's around a 90% chance that you will top up by 10% if you combine basic strategy with martingale. The inherent variance, 3/2 payouts and doubling makes the whole process very confusing to an untrained eye, and it's not that obvious that you are using a cheap and flawed betting system. Scraping a small profit is very easy and fun. I guess I just wanted to impress my fiancee and her friends.
3 The bad beats with Blackjack were mainly due to variance. The problem with Blackjack is that the house edge is calculated by considering a large number of hands with the same starting bet. But with martingales, getting a 3/2 payout is more beneficial with higher bets; likewise having to split/double is good with higher bets, but not good if you're up against the max bet. So the luck further compounded by variance of the bet amount with respect to the starting hand. In roulette the house edge is worse, the but game is a lot more homogeneous.
4 I gave bitZino about 6 months of their earnings from last year in just under one minute: http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/01/bitcoin-based-casino-rakes-in-over-500000-profit-in-six-months/
5 The probability of a run of 7 black is just under 1%, which is a number that we can relate to, it's 1 in 100. Pretty unlikely. If your luck sucks you might hit it a few times. The probability of 10 blacks is just under 0.1%. So if you hit one of the above, then only count is 1 in 10 times. Your luck has got to really suck to hit that more than once. The probability of an initial run of 12 black is around 0.02%, which is just ridiculously low. The probability of 20 black is about 0.0001% which is astronomically low. Disregarding the 2 reds, since I hit the max limit, so not really a fair account, but still. This is almost impossible.
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49. Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies ... Anti Martingale Execution - YouTube Does the Martingale System Really Work? How To Use It ... Martingala o Anti Martingala? (nuova versione) Reverse Martingale System, Roulette

L’Antimartingala, in inglese “Anti Martingale”, è una strategia di Trading che permette di limitare i rischi di perdita in un sistema di Trading. Per applicare il sistema Antimartingala si deve diminuire il valore delle puntate dopo una perdita e al contrario di aumentarle dopo una vincita. Anti-Martingale: Unlike the standard Martingale, the strategy applies to the won trades. If you win an operation, a new trade will be opened with a greater trade amount. Anti-Martingale Example. NOTE: It is suggested that for Anti-Martingale, the coefficient is less than one. Otherwise, you would lose what you’ve gained. The anti Martingale system does what many traders think is more logical. “Martingale in reverse” hangs on to winning trades, and drops losers. If that sounds better, read on. “Doubling-Up” On Winners. The standard Martingale system closes winners and doubles exposure on losing trades. The Anti-Martingale betting system is a variation on the Martingale betting system – in fact, it is the very antithesis of it. It is a betting system that is based on the idea of “Gambler’s Fallacy”, the idea that something is bound to happen at some point because of previous results. Anti-Martingale System: A system of position sizing that correlates the levels of investment with the risk and portfolio size. An anti-Martingale strategy involves halving your bets each time you ...

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49. Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies ...

Does the Martingale System really Work? http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/strategies/martingale-and-anti-martingale.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VID... DISCLAIMER: this is not an investment tip. I am not responsible for the use made with the software shown in the video. Using this software can lead to large ... Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies - Duration: 7:03. InformedTrades 107,909 views. 7:03. INTENSE 15 Minute Heavy Bag Conditioning Workout For Muay Thai - Duration: 14:35. What is the Martingale System? http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/community/education/stops/money-management-martingale.html Some traders and investors ... Anti-Martingale System: Profit By Reversing "Classic" Martingale Strategy 👊 - Duration: 10:32. UKspreadbetting 53,525 views. 10:32. Roulette - How to Win EVERY TIME!

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